Frequency of Diabetes Mellitus and Newly Diagnosed Hyperglycemia and Their Impacts on Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and its associated morbidities are a great global concern. Diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with adverse clinical outcomes and high mortality in patients with COVID-19. Objective(s): This study examined the frequency of BM, newly diagnosed hyperglycemia, and their impacts on hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Method(s): This retrospective study examined 810 medical records of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted to Razi Hospital, Ahvaz, Iran. The clinical presentations, severity, and impacts of COVID-19 were compared between patients with and without DM. Disease severity was determined based on the NEWS2 scoring system. Result(s): This study included 810 medical records of COVID-19 patients, of whom 326 had pre-existing DM, and 484 were non-DM. The rates of diabetes and newly diagnosed hyperglycemia were 40.2% and 11.2%, respectively. The most common underlying diseases were hypertension (35.3%), ischemic heart disease (17.9%), and chronic kidney disease (11.9%), which were higher in people with diabetes than non-diabetics. The rate of acute kidney injury was higher in patients with diabetes than in non-diabetics (30.7% vs. 19.2%;P < 0.001) and in patients with severe COVID-19 than in those whose disease was not severe (27.8% vs. 21.5%;P = 0.04). The rates of severe COVID-19 (46.3% vs. 34.7%;P = 0.093), ICU admission (40.7% vs. 27.4%;P = 0.012), and mortality (18.5% vs. 10.5%;P = 0.079) were higher in patients with newly diagnosed hyperglycemia than in euglycemic patients. Conclusion(s): This study showed that COVID-19 infection is linked with newly diagnosed hyperglycemia and pre-existing DM, both associated with severe COVID-19, more need for ICU admission, and mortality.Copyright © 2023, Author(s).

Validation of the russian version of the 4C Mortality Score and prediction of outcomes of severe COVID-19

The aim of the study is to validate the Russian version of the 4C Mortality Score scale and evaluate its accuracy in predicting the outcomes of severe COVID-19. Material and methods. The staff of the Center for Validation of International Scales and Questionnaires of the Research Center of Neurology received official permission from the authors to conduct a validation study of the 4C Mortality Score scale in Russia. In the course of the work, the linguistic and cultural ratification of the scale was carried out and its Russian-language version was prepared. Psychometric properties (reliability and validity) The Russian-language version was evaluated on a group of 78 patients (37 of whom were men, aged 34 to 88 years) with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19, hospitalized in the City Clinical Hospital No. 15 named after O.M. Filatov (Moscow) in the period from June to August 2021. Results. The linguocultural adaptation of the 4C Mortality Score scale was successfully carried out. High levels of reliability were obtained (Spearman correlation coefficient rho=0.91, p<0.0001;Cronbach's alpha alpha=0.73, p=0.0002;Cohen's kappa kappa=0.85, p<0.0001). It is shown that the 4C Mortality Score scores have a significant correlation with the COVID-GRAM scores (r=0.72, p=0.002) and NEWS2 (r=0.54, p=0.004). Conclusion. As a result of the validation study, the official Russian version of the 4C Mortality Score scale was developed. It is recommended for use by medical professionals of various specialties at all stages of providing medical care to patients with COVID-19. The scale is available for download on the website of the Center for Validation of International Scales and Questionnaires of the Research Center of Neurology (https://www.neurology.ru/reabilitaciya/centr-validacii-mezhdunarodnyh-shkal-i-oprosnikov).Copyright © 2022 by the authors.

COVID-19 in tobacco users.

Smoking is a significant social problem threatening the population's health, especially during the coronavirus pandemic. Due to the problem's urgency, we present a clinical case of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a patient with 10 years of smoking and concomitant chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (chronic bronchitis and peribronchial pneumosclerosis). Patient L.K., 42 years old, on 13.10.2022, was hospitalized for several hours at the Emergency Hospital of the Ministry of Health of Chuvashia (Cheboksary) with a severe new coronavirus infection. Secondary diagnosis: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease Case history: for about two to three weeks, the patient noted an increase in body temperature to 37.2-37.4 degreeC and a cough. He has smoked for about 10 years, 1 pack per day. Computed tomography showed signs of bilateral COVID-associated pneumonitis, alveolitis with 85% involvement and consolidation sites, signs of chronic bronchitis, and peribronchial pneumosclerosis. The diagnosis of COVID-19 was confirmed by a polymerase chain reaction in a nasopharyngeal smear. The NEWS2 score was 9. After the treatment started, the patient died. Histological examination showed perivascular sclerosis, peribronchial pneumosclerosis, atrophic changes in the ciliated epithelium, and structural and functional alteration of the bronchial mucosa. In addition, areas of hemorrhage and inflammatory infiltrate in the bronchial wall were found. Coronavirus is known not to cause bronchitis but bronchiolitis. In the presented case, the patient showed signs of transition of bronchitis to the acute stage. Therefore, it can be assumed that the coronavirus acts as a complicating factor. In addition to the described changes, signs of viral interstitial pneumonia, pulmonary edema, and early development of acute respiratory distress syndrome were identified.Copyright © 2023, Media Sphera Publishing Group. All rights reserved.

Prognostic Accuracy of News 2 in Geriatric Patients with COVID-19 in a Tertiary Care Hospital

Introduction: COVID-19 is a widespread disease having more impact on elderly as compared to younger age group. [2] Although many parameters have emerged as predictors of prognosis of COVID-19, a simple clinical score at baseline can be used for early risk stratification. NEWS2 (National Early Warning Score) is one such scoring system which was originally developed to improve detection of deterioration in acutely ill patients.[8] Therefore, the present study has been conducted to assess the effectiveness of NEWS2 in predicting critical outcomes and mortality in geriatric patients with COVID-19. Material(s) and Method(s): A cross sectional Observational study was done on 200 Geriatric patients hospitalised with confirmed COVID-19 between December 2020 to November 2022. Baseline NEWS2 score was calculated. The sensitivity, specificity, Positive Predictive Value and Negative Predictive Value were established for NEWS2 score of 5 or above. Result(s): In critical group, all 109 (100%) patients' deterioration was predicted, and in non-critical group, in 14 (15.4%) patients non deterioration was predicted while 77 (84.6%) patients' deterioration was predicted. Statistically significant association has been observed between the critical, non-critical groups and NEWS2 scale (P=0.001). Deterioration was predicted by NEWS2 scale in all the critical patients. Conclusion(s): NEWS2 score of 5 or more on admission predicts poor prognosis in geriatric patients with COVID-19 with good sensitivity and it can easily be applied for risk stratification at baseline. We recommend further studies in the Indian setting to validate this simple score and use it further in Geriatric patients with COVID-19.Copyright © 2023, Dr Yashwant Research Labs Pvt Ltd. All rights reserved.

New Onset Renal Replacement Therapy Is a Predictor of Covid-19 Adverse Outcome in Patients with Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease Due to Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Introduction: The patients with diabetic kidney disease (DKD) due to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at a high risk of adverse outcomes of COVID-19. In some cases, rapidly progressive kidney injury requires urgent initiation of renal replacement therapy (RRT) - hemodialysis de novo (HD de novo). The objective of this study is to identify risks factors of adverse outcomes and predictive value of HD de novo in patients with DKD due to T2DM and COVID-19. Method(s): The patients with chronic kidney disease 4-5 stages (CKD 4-5) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were included in the retrospective observational study. The observation period 04.01-10.30.2020. Data were collected from electronic medical database. The following independent variables were analyzed at hospital admission: age, gender, body mass index (BMI), general comorbidity (Charlson Index, CCI), the insulin demand (InsD), fasting blood glucose (FBG), glomerular filtration rate (GFR), Plasma creatinine (Pcr), serum albumin (SA), proteinuria, time from onset to admission, NEWS2-scale points, pulmonary involvement (Chest CT), Hb, WBC, lymphocytes, platelet count, LDH, CPR, ferritin, D-dimer, procalcitonin, Interleukin-6. The observation group was divided into subgroups: 1 - HD not required (HD n/r), 2 - HD de novo. Result(s): A total of 55 patients were included. Mediana age was 69 y (IQR 64;80), fe-males 59%. The overall mortality - 38.2%. In 18 patients (32.7%) HD de novo was initiated due to rapidly progressive renal failure. The results of comparative analyses of demographic, initial clinical and laboratory data are presented in Tables (*Mann-Whitney U-test;IQR, interquartile range;Me, mediana). [Formula presented] [Formula presented] The mortality in both subgroups was 21.6 % vs 72.2 % respectively (p <0,001). HD de novo was determined as an independent predictor of adverse outcome (OR 9.42;95% CI, 2.58-34.4, p = 0.001). The analysis showed that FBG >= 10 mmol/L at admission (OR, 3.38;95% CI, 1.04-10.98, p = 0.050), SA at admission <= 35 g/L (OR 3.41;95% CI, 1.00-11.55, p = 0.050), News2 >4 points (OR 5.60;95% CI, 1.67-19.47, p = 0.006), GFR <= 20 ml/min/1,73m2 at admission (OR 4.24;95%;CI 1.29-13.99, p = 0.020) were independent predictors of HD de novo. Cumulative survival in subgroup HD de novo was 10% (significantly less, than in patients HD n/r) (Fig.). [Formula presented] Conclusion(s): Approximately every third patient with advanced nondialysis DKD required new onset RRT.New onset RRT is an independent predictor of lethal outcome of COVID-19. High FBG, low SA, low GFR and high NEWS2 score at admission are the risk factors of HD initiation during hospitalization. No conflict of interestCopyright © 2023

Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) reinforcement in predicting Covid-19 patient's outcomes

Background: The Covid-19 (C-19) pandemic plugged the global economy into its worst recession since World War II. To avoid hospitals overload, physicians need simple and accurate early tools to predict clinical evolution of C-19 patients. This can help sorting patients to an intra-hospital stay or to an outpatient confinement. Method(s): A retrospective study was conducted in Hotel Dieu de France Hospital;baseline serum LDH level measured on hospital admission was obtained. The length of intra-hospital stay, number of patients transferred to the critical care unit and started on mechanical ventilation (MV) were recorded. The News-2 score on admission (N2), scan severity score (SSS), intra-hospital evolution of patients according to the Clinical Progression Scale published by the World Health Organization (WHO- CPS) and Post C-19 functional status scale (PCFS) at discharge (T0) and two months later (T2) were noted. Correlation between admission serum LDH and these parameters used the Spearman (r) and Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon tests. Result(s): 524 C-19 patients with baseline LDH were included in the study with 359 males(68.5%) and a mean age of 63+/-16 years. Median LDH values were 328(248-430)U/L. Higher LDH values were correlated with: longer length of stay(r=0.22), ICU admission and MV with a p-value< 10 . LDH values were also correlated with: N2(r=0.45), SSS on admission(r=0.52) and follow-up(r=0.26), WHO-CPS(r=0.41), PCFS T0(r=0.2) and T2(r=0.12) all with a p-value< 10 . No correlation was found between baseline LDH and risk of death(p=0.06). Conclusion(s): LDH on admission can predict clinical degradation of C-19 patients in hospitals and after discharge. This can help to anticipate the treatment plan.

Utility of National Early Warning Score 2 to risk-stratify coronavirus disease of 2019 patients in the emergency department: A retrospective cohort study.

Background: The application of a risk stratification pathway is necessary for the emergency department (ED) to assess the severity of the disease and the need for escalation of therapy. We aimed to implement the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) pathway at triage to differentiate patients who are stable or critically ill with no invasive investigations at the time of admission during the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) era in comparison to other clinical risk scores. Methods: One hundred and four patients were collected from April 1, 2021, to June 1, 2021, during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic at an academic medical center in India. The NEWS2 scoring system and the quick sepsis-related organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score were introduced as part of the initial assessment in the triage area of the ED. Data were assessed using the area under the receiving operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for NEWS2 and qSOFA scores, respectively. Results: In the study, NEWS2 classification indicated that 25% of patients required continuous monitoring, of which 12.7% subsequently deteriorated within 24 h of admission and 7% died. Both, NEWS2 (threshold 0; 1, AUROC 0.883; 95%; confidence interval [CI] 0.8-0.966) and qSOFA (threshold 0; 1, AUROC 0.851; 95% CI 0.766-29 0.936) effectively identified COVID-19 patients in the ED at risk for clinical deterioration. There was no significant difference in the diagnostic performance of qSOFA and NEWS2 (DeLong's test P = 0.312). Conclusion: Both NEWS2 and qSOFA effectively-identified COVID-19 patients in the ED at risk for clinical deterioration with no significant statistical difference. However, a triage level risk stratification score can be developed with the inclusion of blood parameters on admission to further validate the practice.

Pulmonary Artery Enlargement: An Independent Risk Factor for Mortality in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19.

Objective: To assess whether baseline pulmonary artery diameter (PAD), obtained from noncontrast nongated computed tomography (NCCT), can be associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. Patients and Methods: This is a retrospective study of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 admitted to Hôtel-Dieu de France university hospital (Beirut, Lebanon) between March 1, 2020 and March 1, 2021. Pulmonary artery diameter was measured at baseline NCCT. Various outcomes were assessed, including hospital length of stay, intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, mortality, and Post-COVID-19 Functional Status scale at discharge and at 2-month follow-up. Results: Four hundred sixty-five patients underwent baseline NCCT, including 315 men (67.7%) with a mean age of 63.7±16 years. Baseline PAD was higher in critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit (mean difference, 0.8 mm; 95% CI, 0.4-1.59 mm) and those receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (mean difference, 1.1 mm; 95% CI, 0.11-2.04 mm). Pulmonary artery diameter at baseline correlated significantly with hospital length of stay (r=0.130; P=.005), discharge status (r=0.117; P=.023), and with Post-COVID-19 Functional Status scale at 2-month follow-up (r=0.121; P=.021). Moreover, multivariable logistic regression showed that a PAD of 24.5 mm and above independently predicted in-hospital all-cause mortality remained unaffected in patients with COVID-19 (odds ratio, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.05-4.09). Conclusion: Baseline PAD measurement using NCCT can be a useful prognostic parameter. Its measurement can help to identify early severe cases and adapt the initial management of patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF THE NATIONAL EARLY WARNING SCORE 2 IS IMPROVED BY THE ADDITION OF INSPIRED OXYGEN FRACTION AS A WEIGHTED CATEGORICAL VARIABLE

TYPE: Late Breaking TOPIC: Critical Care PURPOSE: The National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) is validated for the prediction of acute deterioration, however, the binary grading of inspired oxygen (FiO2) may be a limitation. We tested whether incorporation of FiO2 as a weighted categorical variable improves the predictive validity of NEWS2. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of 3704 adult ward admissions between 01/01/17 and 30/03/21, with a viral respiratory infection (SARS-CoV-2/Influenza). 143,157 longitudinal physiological observations were extracted. FiO2 was transformed into a weighted categorical variable and assigned 0-3 points, substituting the original 0/2 points. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiac arrest, unplanned critical care admission or death within 24 hours of the observation. Ethics approval was granted. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics: age (mean±SD) 60.4±19.4 years, male gender n(%) 1949(52.6%), Charlson co-morbidity count (mean±SD) 1.6±2.3. The primary outcome occurred in 493(13.3%) patients and was strongly associated with the weighted FiO2 score (χ2, p=<0.001). In patients receiving supplemental oxygen, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was greater for NEWS-FiO2 (0.810 (95%CI 0.807-0.814)) versus NEWS2 (0.771 (95%CI 0.767-0.774)). This improvement persisted in the whole cohort. At the 5-point threshold, the positive predictive value (PPV) increased by 22.0% (number needed to evaluate 6.7) for only a 3.9% decrease in sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporation of weighted FiO2 into NEWS2 improves the predictive validity for adverse events, particularly by improving the PPV. Confirmation with prospective analysis is required. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Weighted FiO2 ought to be considered in the next iteration of NEWS2. This can be operationalised automatically within electronic health records or manually with a reference table. DISCLOSURE: No significant relationships. KEYWORD: Early Warning Systems

NEWS2 predicts severity of underlying inflammatory response and outcome in COVID-19 patients

Introduction: COVID-19 is a severe respiratory disease associated with a marked inflammatory response. Clinical methods of assessing severity of disease, including National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), have been shown to predict severity in COVID-19 [1]. However, little research has been undertaken comparing NEWS2 to underlying inflammatory processes. In this study, we assessed whether inflammatory markers taken at presentation to the Emergency Department could predict and mortality in COVID-19 patients. Methods: Whole blood samples were taken at admission to the emergency department for procalcitonin, fibrinogen, CRP, von Willebrand Factor (vWF), IL-6 and TNFα. NEWS2 was also recorded on admission. Levels of inflammatory markers were retrospectively compared to NEWS2 scores and mortality outcomes. Results: A total of 95 patients positive for COVID-19 were included. NEWS2 values > 5 were associated with higher CRP (131.5 ± 87.9 vs 86.4 ± 106.5, p = 0.03), IL-6 (71.9 ± 111 vs 43.4 ± 99, p = 0.007), and vWF (334.1 ± 83.3 vs 296.3 ± 93.4, p = 0.04). The trend of increasing inflammatory markers was also shown in patients who died, significantly so for IL-6 (44.4 ± 54.97 vs 18.8 ± 48.36, p = 0.035). NEWS2 was also shown to be significantly higher in patients who died (7.8 ± 2.2 vs 4.3 ± 2.8, p = < 0.01). Conclusions: NEWS2 predicted the severity of underlying inflammatory response. All inflammatory markers showed a marked increase with severity and mortality, most significant with IL-6. This suggests NEWS2 and inflammatory markers may predict severity and mortality in COVID-19 patients. Further research is required to evaluate these mechanistic changes in inflammatory response.

Use of ROX index in predicting the failure of non-invasive respiratory support for patients with COVID-19

Introduction: COVID-19 patients are at risk of respiratory deterioration requiring higher level of care. Decisions around timing of intubation and invasive ventilation remain a challenge. NEWS2 is a well-established physiology scoring system used to detect the deteriorating patient [1]. New evidence suggests ROX index may be more reliable than NEWS2 to identify patients at risk of treatment failure of non-invasive respiratory support (NIRS) [2]. Another study has suggested the use of a nomogram for predicting NIRS failure [3]. Methods: Data were collected retrospectively from 81 COVID-19 patients admitted to a general critical care unit. Vasopressor use, comorbidities and worst physiological parameters in the first 24 h of instituting NIRS were recorded and used to calculate NEWS2, ROX index, nomogram scores and P/F ratio. NIRS failure, length of therapy and survival status at the end of critical care admission were recorded. Results: Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were calculated for NIRS failure prediction. For nomogram AUROC was 0.701 (95% CI 0.584-0.818) p = 0.0033, ROX index AUROC 0.810 (95% CI 0.708-0.908) p = < 0.0001, NEWS2 AUROC 0.688 (95 CI 0.574-0.802) p = 0.0051, P/F AUROC 0.748 (95% CI 0.638-0.858). Conclusions: ROX index is an easily calculated score and a better predictor of NIRS failure than nomogram, NEWS2 scores and P/F ratio. NEWS2 is not calibrated for this patient population and is not specific for those requiring respiratory support. The ROX index is easier to calculate than a recently developed nomogram [3] and performs better. Patients in respiratory support units (RSU) in the United Kingdom do not have arterial lines sited routinely. ROX-index would therefore be a useful score to help predict treatment failure of NIRS in RSU's and facilitate decision making for escalation of care.

Development a Novel Score (SAD-60) for Predicting Mortality in Hospitalised Patients with COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Multicenter Retrospective Study of 1013 Patients

Background. We aimed to explore a novel risk score to predict mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. In additoon, we compared the accuracy of the novel risk score with CURB-65, qSOFA and NEWS2 scores. Methods. The study was conducted in hospitalised patients with laboratory and radiologically confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia between November 1, 2020 and November 30, 2020. In this retrospective multicenter study. independent predictors were identified using multivariate logistic regression analysis. A receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis with area under the curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of the novel score. The optimal cut-off points of the candidate variables were calculated by the Youden's index of ROC curve. Mortality was defined as all cause in-hospital death. Results. A total of 1013 patients with COVID-19 were included. The mean age was 60,5 ±14,4 years, and 581 (57,4%) patients were male. In-hospital death was occured in 124 (12,2%) patients. Multivariate analysis revealed that peripheral capillary oxygen saturation (SpO2), albumin, D-dimer, and age were independent predictors for mortality (Table). A novel scoring model was named as SAD-60 (SpO2, Albumin, D-dimer, ≥60 years old). SAD-60 score (0,776) had the highest AUC compared to CURB-65 (0,753), NEWS2 (0,686), and qSOFA (0,628) scores (Figure). Conclusion. We demonstrated that SAD-60 score had a promising predictive capacity for mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. Univariate and multivariate analysis of factors predicting mortality Comparison of CURB-65, qSOFA, NEWS-2 and SAD-60 for predicting pneumonia mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 by ROC analysis.

National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) better predicts critical Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) illness than COVID-GRAM, a multi-centre study.

PURPOSE: Clinical scores to rapidly assess the severity illness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) could be considered of help for clinicians. Recently, a specific score (named COVID-GRAM) for severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, based on a nationwide Chinese cohort, has been proposed. We routinely applied the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to predict critical COVID-19. Aim of this study is to compare NEWS2 and COVID-GRAM score. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed data of 121 COVID-19 patients admitted in two Clinics of Infectious Diseases in the Umbria region, Italy. The primary outcome was critical COVID-19 illness defined as admission to the intensive care unit, invasive ventilation, or death. Accuracy of the scores was evaluated with the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Differences between scores were confirmed used Hanley-McNeil test. RESULTS: The NEWS2 AUROC curve measured 0.87 (standard error, SE 0.03; 95% CI 0.80-0.93; p < 0.0001). The COVID-GRAM score AUROC curve measured 0.77 (SE 0.04; 95% CI 0.68-0.85; p < 0.0001). Hanley-McNeil test showed that NEWS2 better predicted severe COVID-19 (Z = 2.03). CONCLUSIONS: The NEWS2 showed superior accuracy to COVID-GRAM score for prediction of critical COVID-19 illness.

Predicting severe COVID-19 in the Emergency Department.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 may lead to severe disease, requiring intensive care treatment and challenging the capacity of health care systems. The aim of this study was to compare the ability of commonly used scoring systems for sepsis and pneumonia to predict severe COVID-19 in the emergency department. METHODS: Prospective, observational, single centre study in a secondary/tertiary care hospital in Oslo, Norway. Patients were assessed upon hospital admission using the following scoring systems; quick Sequential Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome criteria (SIRS), National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), CURB-65 and Pneumonia Severity index (PSI). The ratio of arterial oxygen tension to inspiratory oxygen fraction (P/F-ratio) was also calculated. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) for each scoring system was calculated, along with sensitivity and specificity for the most commonly used cut-offs. Severe disease was defined as death or treatment in ICU within 14 days. RESULTS: 38 of 175 study participants developed severe disease, 13 (7%) died and 29 (17%) had a stay at an intensive care unit (ICU). NEWS2 displayed an AUROC of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.72-0.88), CURB-65 0.75 (0.65-0.84), PSI 0.75 (0.65-0.84), SIRS 0.70 (0.61-0.80) and qSOFA 0.70 (0.61-0.79). NEWS2 was significantly better than SIRS and qSOFA in predicating severe disease, and with a cut-off of5 points, had a sensitivity and specificity of 82% and 60%, respectively. CONCLUSION: NEWS2 predicted severe COVID-19 disease more accurately than SIRS and qSOFA, but not significantly better than CURB65 and PSI. NEWS2 may be a useful screening tool in evaluating COVID-19 patients during hospital admission. TRIAL REGISTRATION: : ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04345536. (https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04345536).

Predictive value of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) for intensive care unit admission in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Background: From January 2020, Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread all over the world. An early assessment of illness severity is important for the stratification of patients. We analysed the predictive value of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) for intensive care unit admission (ICU) in patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome- Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.Methods: Data of 71 patients with SARS-CoV-2 admitted from 1 March to 20 April 2020, to the Clinic of Infectious Diseases of Perugia Hospital, Italy, were retrospectively reviewed. NEWS2 at hospital admission, demographic, comorbidity and clinical data were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to establish the correlation between each variable and ICU admission.Results: Among 68 patients included in the analysis, 27 were admitted to ICU. NEWS2 at hospital admission was a good predictor of ICU admission as shown by an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis of 0.90 (standard error 0.04; 95% confidence interval 0.82-0.97). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, NEWS2 was significantly related to ICU admission using thresholds of 5 and 7. No other clinical variables included in the model were significantly correlated with ICU admission.A NEWS2 threshold of 5 had higher sensitivity than a threshold of 7 (89% and 63%). Higher specificity, positive likelihood ratio and positive predictive value were found using a threshold of 7 than a threshold of 5.Conclusions: NEWS2 at hospital admission was a good predictor for ICU admission. Patients with severe COVID-19 were correctly and rapidly stratified.